I: Precious Metals are in a Bull Market

• We have expanded that to all miners as contributors to Infrastructure Buildout, Alternative Energy Expansion and Electrification of Transportation.
• This Metal Bull is volatile and long winded – this will last for multiple years but expect sharp, sudden and out-of-nowhere corrections. Recoveries will be equally quick and sharp.

II: 2020 to 2030 will be the Decade of Commodities.

• Fed Policy clearly states low interest rates for multiple years and a desire to let inflation rise above Fed target goals. Why – Pay back the Federal Debt with Cheaper Dollars. It was done after the Civil War and after WW2. First rule of Investing: Follow the Fed.
• Oil & Gas Prices will rise in 2021 and 2022 as Jet travel and economies normalize with introduction of Covid Vaccines
• Copper, Nickel, Cobalt, Aluminum and Silver demand will increase as the transport industry electrifies – Batteries, Electric motors, Wind Solar & Electronics devices. All require metal and electrical conductivity. As environmental regulations increase with the new administration and inhibit supply, metal prices will rise.

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Ten Under $10 for the Double was started Aug 1, 2020.

Ten under $10 for the Double:

• Reminder that this is a dynamic list so we will hold positions greater or less than ten in the portfolio. During neutral and positive trending markets, we will expand this list. However, when the over-all trend begins to decline, we will shrinking this list and will add to the companies we consider “core” positions. This strategy is not for the weak of heart or stomach. It has produced big gains over multiple market cycles for our accounts. This strategy is part of our risk management policy. Weed out the weak and rally around (buy) the fundamentally strong when the price is weak.

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What to Do?

Prime Junior Silver Miners ETF

Long Time readers Know we have been bullish on Silver and gold since June of 2015. That is when the miners were valued at the lowest price Vs the physical metals ever. “Too Cheap”, is what we said at the time. Since then we have had some amazing rallies and some breathtaking corrections, but always working in an upward direction. It is not ending any time soon. The 2020 chart above is easy to read. A 50% decline in less than four weeks in March a really nice rally to August 1 and a correction until now. What to do? Continue reading →

Market took a big correction this week. Our positions came down like everyone’s.

We have a position or two we will sell on a rally.

A possible candidate is FLY. Further research into the Airline industry suggest that lease rates were being negotiated lower even before Corona-19 Virus. Probably more so since the Communist  China Corona Virus arrived. It is beginning to look like too much swimming against the current with no visible catalyst to resolve the issue. We do not suggest buying or adding to this position. Continue reading →

• Obvious we are in a stock market correction.
• We’re not sure who our leadership will be coming out of the Election.
• We’re not even sure we’ll know after the election who will be the leader unless it is a landslide, one way or the other.

There are some things we can place in the “high probability” camp as investors.

Fiat Money will continue to be printed in an effort to stave off depression – Inflation is easier to deal with and it allows the government to pay back “our” debt with cheaper dollars. What that means for you and me, is a loss of purchasing power. Continue reading →

LOTM’s Top Picks in Natural Gas Industry

LOTM: we started following Leaders in the Nat Gas industry in July and August of this year. EQT is the largest Nat Gas producer is the USA. COG and AR are in the two to five positions depending on the revenue flows. Multiple analysts are predicting rising energy prices in 2021 and 2022 due to shut-ins, bankruptcies, and cutbacks in Cap-X spending. What we have heard from a number of E&P companies, is when oil moves above  $50, they expect to expand their drilling activity. That mean supply is limited for the time being. In the meantime, they will reduce debt. Continue reading →

An Out-of-Favor Sector of the Market – Went BOOM!

This chart above is not unusual. Who is DAC? DAC (Danaos) is a container shipping company. After tripling in price, the P/E is still only 1.4 on a ttm and 1.2 on a forward basis. Value? Yes. Too cheap. Not exciting stuff – except, perhaps “the market” thinks the global economy is coming back. Don’t know. Just following the market. What I do know, is it is unusual for a shift in asset class, fund flows to end in just three weeks. Eight or nine months – OK. A two-year move? More normal. Continue reading →

Our original issue date of Ten Under $10 was price dated Aug 1, 2020. We have updated our numbers because somewhere or how the numbers and dates got confused in previous postings. You can see our very first posting of Ten Under $10 for a Double on our web site to double check our beginning share prices. Continue reading →