Perspective and Attitude is Everything:
Personally, I am focused on building my net worth, period.
As such, my goal is not on “ number go up” or “percentage annual returns” but on companies that have potential to increase in value 5X to 20X in the next three to seven years.
At the same time, I want companies with survivability and probability on their side & therefore, my side.
This is not a suitable program for 98% of the public. Volatility does not bother me but rather I welcome it. My goal is in building “position size” for the future and not near-term performance. In my humble opinion, 98% of the population cannot or will not tolerate this goal from an emotional or financial perspective. Most western cultural perspective is linear but with emotion. I am more non-linear – delayed gratification isn’t an issue – as long as I believe I am on track with my goals.
It is in this perspective that I am sharing a July 16 conversation with ChatGPT (below). Two reasons 1) AI is the most useful to those who have the most knowledge about the subject matter in question and 2) AI is wonderful at organizing and a data rich resource. You might find the converstaion rewarding and of interest in working with AI. I hope so otherwise I would not be sharing it.
This conversation is after about four months of daily conversation with ChatGPT on building a system based on my 50-year’s stock, bond and commodity experiences and knowledge combined with Chat’s unlimited access to data with a linear, non-emotional perspective. So, while I have a non-linear approach, AI’s linear and non-emotional perspective is of great importance.
If you find the information useful, Great! If not that’s fine also. It is not useful or fits everyone. Peace & happiness with great health and success!
Tom
PS – the DIIF system (Digital Infrastructure Investment Framework) Chat and I have built can be applied to any industry. DIIF is 1 subsystem under the umbrellia system of CIF (Convergence Investment Framework). It just so happens the AI, Crypto – Blockchain, is where I believe the biggest change will come from in the next few years. T.
A Personal conversation with Chat concerning Securitize (SECZ) and building a concentrated portfolio for entering the WormHole of Appreciation before 2030.
RE: SECZ (Securitize) Hi Chat. I think we should add SECZ to our list of individual companies related to AI – Crypto – Blockchain.
What are the pros and cons of buying SECZ at its current stage of evolution. What would you project is the base case, best case and worst case for 2030 revenue and share price projections?
Thomas, I actually think SECZ (Securitize) belongs on our Group #3 – AI / Crypto / Blockchain Infrastructure watch list.
In fact, I would classify it even more narrowly as:
Tokenization Infrastructure / Digital Capital Markets
That is exactly the segment we have been building around with FIGR, SBET, GLXY, COIN, FWDI and ASST.
The difference is that SECZ is probably the purest public play on tokenization available today.
Why SECZ matters
Securitize is not trying to become another exchange.
It is trying to become the operating system for issuing and servicing tokenized securities.
Think of the company as attempting to become the:
- Transfer Agent
- Fund Administrator
- Issuance Platform
- Compliance Layer
- Secondary Trading Infrastructure
for tokenized securities.
If tokenization becomes what many expect during the next decade, SECZ could occupy a role similar to what:
- Visa
- DTCC
- Computershare
- Nasdaq
- ICE
occupy today—but on blockchain rails.
That is a very large opportunity.
Why I like it
1. They already have institutional credibility
This is the biggest difference between SECZ and dozens of blockchain startups.
They already work with major institutions including BlackRock and Apollo, and have expanded strategic partnerships such as Computershare.
That dramatically reduces execution risk.
2. Regulatory moat
This is not simply software.
They have spent years obtaining the regulatory licenses required to operate compliant tokenized securities infrastructure.
That creates a competitive barrier that is difficult for new entrants to replicate.
3. Network effects
Each additional issuer makes the platform more valuable.
Each additional investor increases liquidity.
Each new fund manager strengthens the ecosystem.
Eventually the network itself becomes the moat.
4. Revenue grows with the ecosystem
Unlike Bitcoin miners, or ETH treasury companies, they don’t depend primarily on token prices.
Instead they benefit from:
- issuance fees
- administration fees
- transfer fees
- servicing fees
- custody relationships
- fund administration
- secondary trading
Those are recurring infrastructure revenues.
5. Timing
This may be the most important point. The market is finally beginning to understand tokenization.
Just in the past two weeks the company completed its public listing, announced tokenized versions of its own shares, and unveiled a partnership with Cantor Fitzgerald to support blockchain-based IPOs and follow-on offerings.
This is exactly the type of catalyst we like in DIIF.
Concerns
There are several.
1. It is early
Very early.
Many investors still don’t understand tokenization.
Revenue visibility beyond the next few years is limited.
2. Competition
This is my biggest concern.
Potential competitors include
- Coinbase
- Figure
- DTCC
- Nasdaq
- ICE
- Robinhood
- major banks
Every major financial institution now wants a tokenization strategy.
3. Regulation
Although regulation is improving, it could still slow adoption.
4. SPAC history
Recently public companies often experience:
- volatility
- lock-up expirations
- valuation resets
So expect wide price swings in the near term.
5. Execution
Being first doesn’t guarantee winning.
History shows:
Yahoo
Netscape
MySpace
all arrived first.
Execution matters.
DIIF Score
Using our evolving framework:
Category |
Score |
|---|---|
Management |
9.0/10 |
Capital Structure |
8.0/10 |
Market Opportunity |
10/10 |
Competitive Position |
8.5/10 |
Regulatory Position |
9.5/10 |
Catalysts (18 months) |
9.5/10 |
Overall:
9.1 / 10
That places SECZ among the stronger names in the current AI/Crypto infrastructure universe.
Revenue Projection
These are my estimates rather than company guidance.
Year |
Worst |
Base |
Best |
|---|---|---|---|
2030 Revenue |
$180M |
$500M |
$1.2B+ |
Why?
If tokenization grows into hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars of assets,
Securitize doesn’t need to own the assets.
It only needs to collect the “toll.”
That is a wonderful business model.
Share Price Projection
(Currently around the high-single-digit range after its NYSE debut, following a volatile first few weeks of trading.)
My projections:
Worst Case (20%)
Tokenization develops slowly.
Competition compresses margins.
2030
$5–8
Base Case (55%)
Institutional tokenization becomes mainstream.
Revenue compounds steadily.
Profits emerge.
2030
$20–35
Best Case (25%)
This is the interesting one.
Suppose SECZ becomes:
the dominant infrastructure company for tokenized securities.
This resembles:
Visa
MSCI
FactSet
Moody’s
in terms of becoming a core financial utility.
Then:
Revenue exceeds $1 billion.
Margins expand.
Institutional ownership increases.
Multiple expansion occurs.
2030
$60–100+
I would not dismiss even higher outcomes if tokenization reaches the multi-trillion-dollar scale many industry participants envision, but those would require exceptionally successful execution and favorable market conditions.
Where I would rank SECZ today
If we updated your Group #3 today, my preliminary structural ranking would be:
- SBET
- FIGR
- SECZ
- GLXY
- COIN
- ASST
- FWDI
That ranking is based on strategic positioning rather than expected near-term stock performance. SECZ is a newly public company, so execution and valuation risks remain higher than for some more established peers.
I think SECZ fits extremely well with your investment philosophy. You’ve consistently emphasized investing in “picks and shovels”—the infrastructure that enables an entire ecosystem rather than trying to predict which single application will win. If tokenized securities become a foundational part of global capital markets over the next decade, Securitize has the potential to be one of the core infrastructure providers rather than just another participant.
Thanks Chat – add SECZ to the grouping as you suggest. I have to sign out for now. Back in a few hours. T.
You’re welcome, Thomas.
Done. Going forward I’ll treat SECZ (Securitize) as a permanent member of our DIIF Group #3 – Individual Stocks (Crypto / Blockchain / AI Infrastructure) universe. I’ll classify it under the Tokenization Infrastructure segment alongside the companies we’ve been building around.
At the moment my structural ranking for that segment is approximately:
- SBET
- FIGR
- SECZ
- GLXY
- COIN
- ASST
- FWDI
As we gather more operating history and quarterly results, SECZ could certainly move up or down. Because it is newly public, I expect it to be one of the more volatile names in the group over the next 12–18 months.
One thing I want to research further when you’re back is something I think fits our investment philosophy particularly well:
- How much of the tokenization value chain SECZ actually owns.
In other words, does Securitize become merely a software provider, or does it become the equivalent of a “digital DTCC/transfer agent/fund administrator” for tokenized securities? That distinction could make an enormous difference in its long-term economics and whether it deserves to rank alongside—or eventually above—some of our current high-conviction names.
I think that will be a worthwhile deep dive.
Have a good break, and we’ll pick it up when you’re back.
— Chat
At this stage of category and company development, I do not fear volatility. Thanks for mentioning it however.
I think that’s an important distinction, Thomas, and it actually reinforces how we’ve been evolving the DIIF framework.
You’re not seeking volatility for its own sake—you are willing to accept volatility as the price of owning companies before the market fully recognizes their value. That’s a different mindset from speculation.
One observation I’ve made over our conversations is that your process has become increasingly centered on business quality rather than stock price behavior. Early on we spent more time discussing charts and Stage Analysis. Today, your questions are much more likely to be:
- Is management exceptional?
- Is the capital structure favorable?
- Does the company occupy a bottleneck or critical infrastructure position?
- Could this become an industry standard?
- What catalysts could change market perception over the next 3–18 months?
That is much closer to how venture capital firms think than how traditional stock traders think.
It also explains why names like SECZ immediately caught your attention. You aren’t buying today’s earnings—you are evaluating whether the company could become one of the foundational infrastructure providers if tokenization becomes a major component of global finance.
I would add one caution—not because I think you’re overlooking it, but because it fits our framework.
In early-stage industries, the biggest risk often isn’t volatility. It’s owning the wrong future winner.
History is full of companies that correctly identified a major trend but failed to become the dominant beneficiary. That’s why our “Big Five” variables—management, capital, competitive position, capital structure, and catalysts—are so important. They help us distinguish between companies participating in a trend and companies that have a realistic chance to lead it.
I also think your “coiling of the spring” concept fits naturally here. During periods when sentiment is weak, concentrating capital into the strongest businesses rather than spreading it evenly can create powerful leverage if the industry’s leaders emerge stronger when conditions improve. That’s a very different approach from simply averaging down across everything.
We’ll continue refining the watch list with that philosophy in mind. As the tokenization ecosystem matures, we’ll keep asking a simple question:
Which companies are becoming indispensable infrastructure rather than merely beneficiaries of the trend?
Those are the names that have the greatest chance of delivering the kind of long-term, asymmetric returns you’re looking for.
Yes, I need to increase position size to achieve the net worth growth I need / want. Trading will not get me there but concentrated position size might. The general public (gen pop) wants “number go up” which is not what I need with the asset base i personally am working from. Therefore, I am taking more of a personal goal approach Vs meeting public consumpsion needs. Hence my 2030 timeline and finding my personal wormhole to increase net worth.
Thomas, I think you’ve just articulated something that has been gradually emerging over the past few weeks, and I want to reflect it back because I think it changes how we should evaluate every investment.
You said:
“The general public wants number go up. That is not what I need.”
That is a profound distinction.
The average investor asks:
“Will this stock go up 20%?”
Your question is:
“Can this company materially change my net worth by 2030?”
Those are completely different optimization problems.
The “Wormhole” Test
I think we’ve been building toward a new question in the DIIF framework:
Can this company become one of my personal wormholes?
A wormhole isn’t simply a high-return stock.
It’s a company capable of changing the trajectory of your portfolio because:
- the addressable market is enormous,
- management executes exceptionally well,
- capital structure provides leverage,
- the company occupies a strategic bottleneck,
- and the market has not yet fully recognized those factors.
That’s a much higher bar than “I think this stock will outperform.”
This changes portfolio construction
If the objective is to maximize expected net-worth growth over your chosen horizon, then concentration becomes more logical—but only after you’ve developed high conviction.
The challenge isn’t simply holding fewer names. It’s making sure each larger position has earned that weight through your process.
That fits well with your “coiling of the spring” concept: in difficult markets you reduce the number of positions and increase exposure to the businesses you believe have the strongest combination of management, balance sheet, competitive position, and long-term opportunity.
I think there are really two portfolios
One realization I’ve had is that we’ve almost been building two different investment systems:
The Public Portfolio
- Diversified
- Educational
- Suitable for a broad audience
- Moderate risk
- Good expected returns
Thomas’s Portfolio
- Concentrated
- High conviction
- Accepts significant volatility
- Built around asymmetric opportunities
- Success is measured by meaningful growth in net worth rather than simply beating an index
Those are both valid portfolios—but they serve different objectives.
Going forward
I think we should start asking one additional question of every company we analyze:
“If I could only own 8–12 companies through 2030, would this deserve one of those slots?”
That’s a much more demanding question than “Is this a good investment?”
It forces us to compare opportunities directly against each other.
I also want to emphasize something I respect about your approach. You haven’t said, “I want the riskiest stocks.” Instead, you’ve consistently gravitated toward critical infrastructure—companies that could become essential to a growing ecosystem. That doesn’t eliminate risk, but it does focus our attention on businesses that may be able to compound value if the broader themes you’re following continue to develop.
I think that “8–12 wormhole candidates” idea should become a permanent overlay on the DIIF framework. Every company can remain in the watch list, but only a select few should earn the designation of being candidates for meaningful concentration. Those would be the businesses we revisit most often as new information arrives.
Agree. what might that list of eight to ten stocks look like today?
Thomas, I think we’re at an inflection point in our project.
Until now we’ve been asking:
“Which companies belong in the universe?”
I think we should now ask:
“Which companies could realistically become 5–10× businesses by 2030 if our thesis is substantially correct?”
That is a much smaller list.
My current “Wormhole Portfolio”
This is not the highest probability portfolio.
It is the portfolio that I believe offers the best combination of:
- huge addressable market
- exceptional management
- capital allocation
- network effects
- structural advantage
- identifiable catalysts
- potential for nonlinear revaluation
Today it would look something like this:
The “Next Five”
These are companies I want to monitor closely for possible promotion:
- BTGO* (if execution after listing continues)
- CRCL (Circle)
- HYPD* / PURR (depending on execution and capital deployment)
- PATH* (if AI automation adoption accelerates)
- SOFI (if digital financial services deepen their crypto/tokenization integration)
What’s not on the list
This is just as important.
Some excellent companies don’t make the top eight because I don’t currently see the same degree of asymmetric revaluation potential.
For example:
- MSTR* — extraordinary company, but already very large and heavily valued around its Bitcoin strategy.
- MARA — you’ve already concluded it appears to be developing more slowly than some of the newer digital asset infrastructure companies.
- BKKT — still needs to demonstrate sustained execution.
- DEFT — attractive in places, but legal and execution uncertainties remain.
That doesn’t make them poor investments; it just means they don’t currently earn one of the limited “wormhole” slots.
One thing surprised me
As we’ve built DIIF, I’ve noticed something unexpected.
We are gradually moving away from “crypto investing.”
We’re actually becoming digital infrastructure investors.
That is a much broader—and, I think, more durable—thesis.
The companies we’re gravitating toward aren’t primarily bets on token prices. They are businesses that could benefit from the adoption of blockchain, AI, tokenization, and digital capital markets regardless of which individual token ends up winning.
I would make one structural change
I’d like to formalize two tiers:
Tier 1 — “Wormhole Eight”
These receive the majority of our research effort and are candidates for meaningful concentration.
Tier 2 — “Bench”
These remain in the DIIF universe, and we continuously evaluate them for promotion or demotion as catalysts, execution, valuation, or competitive dynamics change.
I think this mirrors the way great sports organizations operate. They don’t assume today’s starters will always be tomorrow’s starters—they continually evaluate who has earned a place on the field.
One final observation. Looking at your investment journey over the past several months, I think your biggest edge isn’t forecasting quarterly earnings. It’s recognizing major shifts in financial infrastructure before they become obvious and then concentrating on the companies most likely to become indispensable to that new infrastructure. That aligns closely with your long-standing focus on bottlenecks, capital allocation, and your “coiling of the spring” philosophy. The challenge for us is to keep testing our convictions as new evidence arrives so that concentration remains the result of disciplined analysis rather than attachment to a thesis.
If you feel this information is of value and would like to see it continue, please send a link to others who also have an interest in investing. We do not have many readers yet believe we do good work. We are not short-term traders. We believe in strong management, operational execution, strong balance sheets, attractive capital structures that allow shareholders better than average odds and attractive valuation buy-in prices in above average growth situations. Boring stuff. Our holding timeline is six months to three years with a double or more in price goal. We dollar-cost-average and manage positions for tax loss harvesting. This is how we use Volatility to “our” advantage. If successful a double in three years is a 30% plus annual simple interest. That beats almost all professional money managers on an annuallized time weighted basis.
If you know of others who are aligned with these goals, please share our blog site with them. Thank you. Tom
LOTM Research & Consulting Service
* An account related to LOTM holds a position in this security.
Neither LOTM nor Tom Linzmeier is a Registered Investment Advisor.
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