Miners typically are in Three stages of development.

• Exploration
• Development
• Production

All three stages above, are subject to the volatility of investor’s fear, greed or apathy. Developmental stage is typically an apathetic price stage. The thrill of Exploration Discovery has gone, and the results from production have not started. The development stage time period can be as short as two to three years to five or six years. In jurisdictions which are unfavorable to mining, it can take much longer. Example: PolyMet (PLM) $3.27, within the state of Minnesota, is going on twenty-years trapped in the developmental stage. Permitting was completed years ago, the State and Federal by 2018. PLM has been declared of national strategic importance (Biden Admin) and still the company is tied up with lawsuits in the courts. Continue reading →

I: The USA has more debt that we can repay.

II: History says there are three paths out of this – civil unrest, war and/or inflation. It is probable that it will encompass a combination of the three. We are already seeing it and before the tax hikes and lowering of government benefits.

III: The US Dollar is losing its position as the Global Reserve currency. The USA will not, is not, going peacefully into the night on this one. I suspect the Russia/Ukraine battle revolves around this topic in unspoken ways. A potential kinetic war with China cannot be ruled out.

The investment theme will be the most rewarding, is a return to buying things with real value. This comes down to Tangible/Real items and Continue reading →

‘Once people realize the Fed doesn’t have to keep increasing rates and will soon take rates down…that will be a buy signal for markets.’ (story link)
— Bill Ackman

One of the clearest signals that the Fed has reached it rate cycle peak – no, let me say it differently. When the two-year Treasury rate falls below the Federal Reserve Funds Rate, the “market” is telling you the rate hikes are over or no longer a threat. Equities will rally when treasuries fall, not when the Fed reduces rates.

The two-year Treasury note rate is a forward looking signal on what the Market thinks. The Fed Funds rate itself is a lagging indicator that is data driven. Therefore, the data driven signal to act is published numbers and not a forward Continue reading →

Within the next 60 to 90-days, we expect:

• Ten-year Treasury Rates to pause and then fall.
• The US Dollar to fall.
• Risk Assets to rally – Growth stocks with cash flow, Bitcoin & Ethereum to rally.
• Money flows to shift towards Emerging Markets (EM) and away from U.S. Equities.
• Physical metals and commodities to rise in price.

Continue reading →

Risk management tactics are both traditional and in presenting Nationally over about 15 years, I heard of a number of non-traditional risk management tactics.

Traditional for traders often involves stop loss orders.
Traditional risk management for long term, passive investors is often DCA – Dollar-Cost-Averaging.

There are a couple of market thoughts that fit into this risk management tool I will discuss today.

• One, is the adage, keep your losses limited and let your winners keep winning. In previous comments I have mentioned to try to keep your losses to a $1.00 of loss for each $3.00 targeted gain. In doing this you can lose two of three trades and still be profitable overall with the one winner out of three trades.
• Another “fact” I discovered years ago, not really an adage, but a truism, is more low price stocks appear in the annual “best performers list each year than expensive stocks appear on the best performer list, no matter the category. By Category I mean S&P 500, NASDAQ or NYSE. Of the top ten in each of the previous categories mentioned, 7 or 8 of the best performers started from under $10. That is where my interest in sub-$10 ideas started. If you want winners and at the end of each year, the majority of the market biggest winners, started from under $10. I am also shrinking the pool of ideas I look at in doing this exercise. That makes my job easier. There are more selection factors in profiling for potential 2X to 10X winners but that is not the subject today.

Continue reading →

CMF showing some interesting accumulation going on.

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Africa Oil is controled by the Lundin Group. The Lundin family is a well known family business in Canada. Founded by Adolf Lundin over 50 years ago, the Lundin Group comprises, 11 separate, individually managed public companies focused on the resource sector. Africa Oil is one of their 11 public companies. The Lundin Group itself, is a privately held organization.

AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES ITS INTENTION TO LAUNCH A SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM UNDER A NORMAL COURSE ISSUER BID
8:00 PM ET 8/10/22 | Dow Jones

VANCOUVER, BC, Aug. 10, 2022 /CNW/ – (TSX: AOI) (Nasdaq-Stockholm: AOI) — Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil”, “AOC” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has Board approval to submit an application to launch  its first share buyback program under a Normal Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) scheme. The Company’s intention is to repurchase up to ten percent of its public float, the maximum permitted over a twelve month period under Canadian and Swedish securities law, subject to customary approvals. View PDF Version

Once approved, the buyback program would expand on the Company’s existing shareholder capital returns program with an annual base dividend of $0.05 per share, distributed in two semi-annual payments. A further update on the process and timing, including a launch press release, will be issued upon regulatory approval and once the Board has formally resolved to launch the NCIB. Link to full story Continue reading →

Changes in perspective and reality influencing Markets:

• Deflation to Inflation Investing
• War Time Investing from Peace Time Investing
• A shift from Globalism to Nationalism to Tribalism
• Change in focus involving Past – Present – Future

Investing decisions change for many reasons. “The Market” direction of money flow changes based on Perceptions – real or perceived. Right now, we have to recognize the hard realities in life because it will impact our market returns until they change again. Unfortunately changes in perception have no defined life cycles. Continue reading →