Summary:
- Comment on Bakkt’s press release Feb 14, 2024.
- Best of the post discovery / pre-production high grade large-land package Silver miners.
Bakkt (BKKT*) $0.96 Shelf registration statement declared effective by the SEC
4:16 AM ET 2/15/24 | Briefing.com
Co announced that its “universal shelf” registration statement on Form S-3 was declared effective by the SEC on February 14, 2024. This registration statement allows Bakkt, so long as it is effective, to raise up to an aggregate of $150 million of capital in one or more offerings over the subsequent three years. If Bakkt decides to raise capital in a future offering using such registration statement, Bakkt will describe the specific details of that future offering in a prospectus supplement that is filed with the SEC. Bakkt believes the flexibility of a shelf registration on Form S-3 will provide the Company with significant benefits when raising capital in the future.
Bakkt (BKKT*) $0.96 It seems that with this shelf offering overhanging the stock, the upside is limited until Revenue is large enough to over come the dilution of the potentially 150 million shares offering mentioned above. This position is in the LOTM: Ten under $10 for the Double portfolio list and owned in accounts related to LOTM. Revenue is expected to ramp quarter over quarter in 2024 at a rate that total revenue for the year 2024 will be in the wide range of $1.9 billion to $4 billion. This assumes that the ramp of multiple crypto exchanges globally unfolds smoothly.
We have a buying limit of $1.00 suggested on the shares and an accumulated slowly. Our one year target is $1.75 to $2.25. possible catalysts for price action are the announcement of quarterly results. We believe that price action will be loaded in the late third quarter and fourth quarter of 2024. Other than that pattern we believe price action will be influenced by market action and economic action.
The Metal Miners are starting to draw large investor interest. See Stan Druckenmiller buys TECH Resources, Newmont and Barrick – Kitco, February 15, 2024. Sells Google Alphabet, Amazon and Alibaba. Trims Nivida.
IDEAS: Seven of the biggest Silver, non-producing asset properties:
- Vizsla Silver (VZLA*) $1.29 MKT Cap $311 million – Shares out 241 million Where? Sinaloa state, Mexico – development.
- Discovery Silver (DSVSF*) $0.46 – MKT Cap $193 million, Shares out 420 million – Where? Chihuahua state, Mexico – development.
- Bear Creek Mining (BCEKF) $0.15 – MKT Cap $33.6 million – Shares out 266 million – Where? Puno, Peru (development) and Sonora state, Mexico (producing)
- Aya Gold and Silver (AYASF*) $7.39 – MKT Cap $936 Million Shares out 122 million – Where? Morocco, Africa – early production & development
- Adriatic Metals (ADMLF) $2.13 – MKT Cap $653 million – Shares out 307 million – Where? Bosnia and Serbia – development.
- Blackrock Silver (BKRRF) $0.18 – MKT Cap $48.6 million – Shares out 270 million – Where? Nevada, USA – development
- Dolly Vardin (DOLLF) $0.52 – MKT Cap $147 million – Shares out 283 million – Where? Idaho, USA – development.
Each of these “companies” has the potential to be a greater than a $1 billion dollar property. Most if not all, will have to issue additional shares and dilute shareholder value prior to reaching production. It is the nature of the business.
Of these names, Aya is the most attractive for multiple reasons. Mining friendly jurisdiction, High grade, large scale and early production stage for cash flow and smallest number shares outstanding for upside price leverage without borrowed money.
- We do not recommend buying only one name, however. Consider buying a package of equally weighted money.
- They all have good management from what we can determine.
- Most will have to raise money for development, in fact we’d say all need to raise money to get into full production.
- A number of these, likely odds are four or five of the seven, will be bought out by the majors. They all talk of going into production, but the majors need to grow production and it is easier for them to buy someone than explore and develop a property. Bear Creek and Blackrock Silver are probably the highest risk / highest reward. Aya is probably the least risky but do your own research to determine what fits your situation.
- The industry is historically cheap Vs the price of physical metals. Having said that, be prepared to experience 30% or more drawdowns or even some of these going out of business. It is the norm more so than not, in the exploration game. These properties have “discovered” large claim packages so the odds of them surviving are better than a pure exploration company still in the pre-discovery stage.
- Be mentally prepared to experience high volatility and have an entry plan and an exit plan established before making your purchases. Knowing this prior to each trading day is part of your risk management policy. Write out your risk management policy for each company and each portfolio. I am a phone call away if you want to get some thoughts and options to consider.
- A resource is the recent Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC). Many of the above companies had 20 minute prestation that can be viewed through YouTube. Here is a link to the conference videos. The quest way to search is to enter the company name in the search box.
Hope this is of help. Funds permitting, I would own all the names above, but that is not the situation at this time. It is a bit of a high probability lottery approach. The size of the post-discovery land package and the high grade of silver in the ground says there is value in these companies. The challenge development for production and the amount of money needed to release that value, is where the risk factors are.
Success in the market is only partly in the stock (for traders) and company (for wealth-building) selection process. How you manage the positions and risk are where most of the returns come from. This is a numbers and probability game. For most of us it is a buy lower than what we sell the product for. This is rarely a simple matter. Market and company volatility can be your friend and your opportunity. I am here to help if you’d like to discuss various strategies and tactics.
For the most part, lack of a plan, emotions and frustrations are our foe.
Numbers, probabilities and time are our friends.
Accounts related to LOTM and Tom Linzmeier can & will, buy or sell securities at any time.
LOTM Research & Consulting Service
* An account related to LOTM holds a position in this security.
Neither LOTM nor Tom Linzmeier is a Registered Investment Advisor.
Consult your investment advisor for investment advice appropriate for your situation.
To Unsubscribe, please select “return” and type Unsubscribe in the subject line.
Tom’s LOTM Blog at LIVINGOFFTHEMARKET
Text Six Five One, Two Four Five, Six Six Zero Nine
#blockchain #stocks #miningstocks #gold #silver #crypto #fintech #investing
268 total views, 12 views today