Those of you who have read this blog know the LOTM macro theme is focused on three areas:
- Crypto/Blockchain – this is an early stage – probable decade or longer expansion trend.
- Scarce Natural Resources with a focus on Gold, Silver & Copper
- High Dividend Ideas – with a core in Biotech. AI will bring faster drug discovery and development
You also know we like Stage Analysis as a benchmark for timing entry points. Buy Strong Company Value when the stock is in Stage 1 and appears to be heading into stage two chart pattern.
For review, below is stage analysis diagram.
Stage 1 = Consolidation Zone – Stage 2 = Rising Trend – Stage 3 = Topping Zone – Stage 4 = Declining Trend
Crypto/Blockchain related equities took a surprise hit on a October 10, 2025 liquidation event, previously discussed, well known and understood. The sector has transitioned through a stage 4 decline and a stage 1 consolidation. The conflict between Iran and the United States did not cause a further stage 4 decline and the sector is consolidating and appears to be in “early” stage 2 rally position.
LOTM did a study of the sector, running dominant names through a stage analysis screening process. Results are near the end of this report.
I was pleasantly surprised by the results. We appear to be entering a Stage 2 rally trend.
There is one caveat I would like to point out that is important and feeds into our third area of focus listed above, High Dividend or Distribution paying equities.
A new sector has arrived and is expanding in the ETF High Distribution area. This is put and call selling on highly volatile names. Crypto & Blockchain ideas are volatile. We have mentioned that there is a time to own this Crypto/Blockchain High Volatilely sector and a time to avoid this sector. This fits perfectly with stage analysis.
Avoid owning this sector of Crypto/blockchain related ideas when they are in stage 4. It is difficult, very difficult to recover the originag value on a buy and hold policy.
This is true even if you reinvest the distributins back into the stocks. The draw downs are simply too steep and deep for this to be a investment policy.
On the flip side however, when the core assets of Crypto/Blockchain sector is in a rising trend, a stage 2 trend, the price of the High Distribution equities in this sector can double, triple or more while collecting a larger than normal distribution.
There is one more detail important in this discussion. The underlying “core” asset probably needs to rise first and then the high distribution equities follow.
Example Bitcoin needs to rally first and then high distribution equities, like YBTC, will have a delayed rally to the base asset, Bitcoin.
Many of the ETFs above do not own the securities they sell puts and calls on. It is important to “Know What You Own” and “Why you own it.” Review the charts at Finviz.com or StockCharts.com
Some of the newer yield / covered-call crypto ETFs (especially newer income products) do not yet have long enough trading history for a full classical 30-week stage analysis.
In the future stage analysis, LOTM will expand the list to cover additional Digital Asset Treasury companies, High Distribution Option Selling ideas and Companies the are beneficiaries of using Crypto/Blockchain technology.
The sector tends to trade as a group so you can make some basic assumptions between leaders and laggards with in the sector. A company like DeFI Technologies (DEFT) is likely to be a lagging name while Black Stone Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) will likely be a leading mover.
The process used to determine a stage 1, 2, 3 or 4 position is more complicated than simple chart analysis. There are addiitional factors used to comfirm the probability of the signal strength:
Core Stage 2 Requirements:
1) Price above the 30-week MA
This is the starting point, but price can cross above the moving average temporarily and still fail.
So, a price crossing above a moving average alone is not enough.
2) The 30-week MA must be rising
This is just as important as the Price crossing above the Moving Average.
If the MA is still flat or falling, It is usually classify as:
- late Stage 1
- Stage 2 candidate
- not yet confirmed
This is why several names are “early Stage 2 candidates.”
3) Breakout from a clear base
This is one of the most important factors.
We want to see price breaking above:
- prior weekly resistance
- consolidation range
- cup / flat base / shelf
Example: if an ETF trades sideways between $28–$31 for 10 weeks and then closes above $31, that is a much stronger Stage 2 signal.
4) Volume confirmation
This is critical.
Stage Analysis strongly emphasizes heavy volume on breakout.
A good Stage 2 breakout should show:
- 150%+ of average weekly volume
- preferably 200%+
Without volume, breakouts fail more often.
5) Relative strength leadership
This is one of the most important filters for crypto ETFs is to compare them against:
- IBIT
- Bitcoin itself
- Nasdaq
Example: If NODE is outperforming IBIT, that is a very bullish leadership signal.
This is often what separates Good from great.
6) Prior Stage 4 completion
A true Stage 2 usually comes after a completed Stage 1 base.
Meaning:
- prior decline exhausted
- selling pressure absorbed
- base formed
If price shoots straight up from a steep selloff without a base, be cautious.
Practical rule:
For a high-confidence Stage 2, we usually want 4 out of 5 boxes checked:
✔ price above MA ✔ MA rising ✔ clear breakout ✔ strong volume ✔ RS leadership
If only 2–3 are checked, it is more an “early Stage 2 candidate” rather than confirmed Stage 2. That distinction is important.
Below is a list of Crypto & Blockchain ETFS with computer screened stage analysis opinions:
Screened April 10, 2026
As mentioned above, I will work on providing a weekly report on Stage Analysis for companies and ETFs in the areas where LOTM is focused. Next week my goal is to refine the focus on Equities & ETFs in the area of Crypto, Blockchain and Gold, Silver and Copper.
For now, we are seeing the beginning of a transition stage from a completed stage four, currently in stage one consolidation and the beginning of stage two rising trend for the crypto/blockchain sector.
This report covered some of the names of interest in Crypto/Blockchain and High Distribution areas of Crypto Blockchain.
I totally believe AI, Crypto & Blockchain are in the beginning of a multi-year if not decades long growth cycle similar to the late 1990’s with the birth of the internet and companies like Amazon, Facebook (now Meta), Netflix, Google and others. AI and Crypti and Blockchain are joined at the hip as AI Agents begin processing and executing payment transactions using smart contracts (Blockchain).
Do your own Due Diligence. Each of us have different risk tolerances, time available to do analysis or monitor price changes. I am available to talk if you want assistance. I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. This is not investment advice. Just sharing what I knowledge I have accumulated over a working career spanning 50-years. 😊
Remember – everything in the markets is probabilities. Adjust, adapt, and use the risk management policy that is best for you.
LOTM Research & Consulting Service
* An account related to LOTM holds a position in this security.
Neither LOTM nor Tom Linzmeier is a Registered Investment Advisor.
Please refer to our web site for full disclosure at www.LivingOffTheMarket.com ZTA Capital Group, Inc.
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