It appears that Bitcoin has built enough of a base to attempt a rally. The chart looks interesting.
BTC has not crossed above its 50-day moving average (MA), but it is putting in a valiant effort to hold the 28,000 to 30,000 level. If the price of bitcoin goes sideways for another four to five weeks, the 50-day will drop close to the 30,000 level. A chart pattern like the past four weeks is what I call flat-lining. It can only happen if someone big is accumulating. They could run out of money, or something develops to change the atmosphere but in and of itself it is a positive development.
For those of you who prefer a Bitcoin Trust over the actual crypto, Osprey Trust (OBTC), tracks the coin very well. You can see by comparing the two charts above. In the second chart I have added two trading indicators, MACD and RSI (Relative Strength). While basing, neither BTC nor OBTC have broken out. The best I can suggest at this time is they look like they can challenge the under-belly of their respective 50-day MA’s.
At this time target a 10% to 20% rally in Bitcoin. Buy the dip sell the rally. Once a trend develops buy the dips sell a portion on the rally.
I would like to mention BTC as a potential future super-star performer. I cannot tell you where the bottom will be for BTC. It could be now – or lower. No matter where the low is 0 say 50 percent lower $15,000 price. You could lose $15,000 value in the short term. If BTC only goes to $100,000, $30,000 there is 3.5 time upside up. I have no doubt BTC will survive. I have no doubt that given enough time, BTC can be two to five times higher value. I have no control over time. But the risk reward ratio given time, the reward is much greater than what I can lose.
Work in crypto is racing ahead at breakneck speed. Crypto / Blockchain is changing the world. It is not going back into the bottle. So, I am not afraid of bitcoin.
I would like to share an interview with Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.
In the interview I am impressed with his calmness and confidence in his belief. He does not say this is the bottom price now. McGlone thinks equities have much farther to fall. I am less confident that equities will continue a lot lower. Lower ok. There are such good value bargains in the market now.
Anyway – listen to the interview. It is maybe 25 minutes.
The ‘Great Reversion’ (to the Mean) is upon us, deflation is next,
BTC will be one of ‘best assets’ on Earth
McGlone thinks oil will top out in 2022. That is where his comment in the title about deflation come from. His top investments are Gold (& battery metals) – Bitcoin – Natural Gas. Remember is title Senior Commodity Strategist. He is going to invest in what he knows as so should we all.
I bought a small amount of Osprey (OBTC) today. I expect to dollar-cost-average into the position over time.
Have a great day.
Written June 8, 2022, by Tom Linzmeier, editor, LOTM.
LOTM Research & Consulting Service
* An account related to LOTM holds a position in this security.
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