I was wrong. Putin launched a full scale Invasion on Ukraine
The quick and dirty of it is that you have Peace Time investing and War Time investing.
War consumes people and commodities
Especially energy in the commodities area:
Solar, wind, and batteries don’t make the cut in war time. They are not a dense enough source of power. So, demand for fossil fuels will explode. The pipeline companies with dividends are likely the most conservative and best cash flow generators (for investors) AM (Anteros Midstream) comes to mind. I like gas better than oil. Lots of oil in the world. Gas is more regional.
Gold and Silver:
Safe haven assets. More government printing from government spending on “the war effort”.
Bitcoin did not pass the test as a safe haven asset. Too new an asset class. Maybe down the road. Gold and silver will explode. BUT it is unsure how far prices will run. At the first sign of peace or reconciliation, gold and silver will dump in price. So be ready to sell a third to a half of your position to buy back in again.
Cyber security:
Not the first thing you think of, but if Russia gets upset with the USA & EU, the first thing they will do aggressively against us is a cyber-attack. Plenty of allies for Russia. Iran, North Korea & China. A Cyber security ETF might be a good – in this environment – lower risk exposure to the market. Expect water and food shortages in the USA related to a cyber outage.
Some Cyber Security ETF’s are: CIBR $46.35 – BUG $28.35 – IHAK $38.67
First thoughts on the first day of the war.
It is a different world today than yesterday.
Love you guys. Take good care.
February 24, 2022, Written by Tom Linzmeier
LOTM Research & Consulting Service
* An account related to LOTM holds a position in this security.
Neither LOTM nor Tom Linzmeier is a Registered Investment Advisor.
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