Inflation in Brazil has dropped dramatically. Interest rates are still high. If Brazil gets a third month of falling inflation it could end their interest rate hiking cycle. This would be very bullish for Brazilian bonds and equities.
Inflation rate in Brazil
Technical Comment for Ten Producing Miners, Published September 9 linked at LivingOffTheMarket.com
Miners typically are in Three stages of development.
All three stages above, are subject to the volatility of investor’s fear, greed or apathy. Developmental stage is typically an apathetic price stage. The thrill of Exploration Discovery has gone, and the results from production have not started. The development stage time period can be as short as two to three years to five or six years. In jurisdictions which are unfavorable to mining, it can take much longer. Example: PolyMet (PLM) $3.27, within the state of Minnesota, is going on twenty-years trapped in the developmental stage. Permitting was completed years ago, the State and Federal by 2018. PLM has been declared of national strategic importance (Biden Admin) and still the company is tied up with lawsuits in the courts. Continue reading
I: The USA has more debt that we can repay.
II: History says there are three paths out of this – civil unrest, war and/or inflation. It is probable that it will encompass a combination of the three. We are already seeing it and before the tax hikes and lowering of government benefits.
III: The US Dollar is losing its position as the Global Reserve currency. The USA will not, is not, going peacefully into the night on this one. I suspect the Russia/Ukraine battle revolves around this topic in unspoken ways. A potential kinetic war with China cannot be ruled out.
The investment theme will be the most rewarding, is a return to buying things with real value. This comes down to Tangible/Real items and Continue reading
One of the clearest signals that the Fed has reached it rate cycle peak – no, let me say it differently. When the two-year Treasury rate falls below the Federal Reserve Funds Rate, the “market” is telling you the rate hikes are over or no longer a threat. Equities will rally when treasuries fall, not when the Fed reduces rates.
The two-year Treasury note rate is a forward looking signal on what the Market thinks. The Fed Funds rate itself is a lagging indicator that is data driven. Therefore, the data driven signal to act is published numbers and not a forward Continue reading
Within the next 60 to 90-days, we expect:
There are a couple of market thoughts that fit into this risk management tool I will discuss today.
CMF showing some interesting accumulation going on.