LOTM: Consolidate to High Conviction Ideas in Difficult Times

  • Blockchain / Crypto Theme
  • Commodity Theme – Resources that have constrained supply and high demand
  • Fintech/ Payments Theme
  • Biotech / Genetic Theme
  • High dividend / cash flow theme.

Clarity of purpose, Structure and a plan, Focus and concentrate.

The industries above are not going away – no matter what. These are industries that will grow and expand underneath the surface. I mean this: the “Surface’ is the stock price we see. The “Underneath,” is the underlying company.

  • Companies are the real world – growing, acquiring and expanding. Even when the stock is flat or falling.
  • Stock prices are supply and demand driven in a more emotional world. Behavioral finance in our view.

Companies are dynamic and changing with time. We want to be in companies that are growing faster than normal yet are reasonably priced – even undervalued. It is hard to lose money given enough time in situations like this. Were we get into trouble with the stock price part of this, is over-paying for an underlying company or the fundamentals of the company deteriorate and have trouble regrouping.

For the current market environment, we believe we can solve financial needs and problems within the groups mentioned above. Growth, Income and preserving asset value long-term. Short-term can be more emotional.

Fintech / Payments Industry appears to be seeking bottoming formation. At least in the two companies we have focused on PagSeguro (PAGS)* and StoneCo (STNE)* Below in the Fintech/Payments ETF IPAY.

Finviz Chart

Biotech / Genetics Industry is finding buyers. Looks good technically. Stocks’ have fallen 50% to 90% in this industry. Baby-out with the bath water situation. Volatile but cheap at this time in our perspective.

Finviz Chart

Someone big is accumulating the sector. This is Cathie Wood’s ETF – ARK Genomics.

Blockchain / Crypto – Bitcoin is attempting to base in the $30,000 price area. It is unknown if we will see another leg down or not. Under the surface development is running at breakneck speed. The landscape beneath our feet is changing fast. Fastest industry growth in human history. We like the companies developing the software and the various applications, better than we like the coins.

Chart

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By the flatline chart in May and June, we can say someone big is accumulating Bitcoin.

Commodities – mainly our focus is on Battery metals/Precious Metals and Natural Gas. – Nat gas is a “hot” sector at the moment, metal miners might be the best value in the entire market. Keep in mind the available Supply Vs Demand driven need for going all electric.

High Income: Most of us like to buy one idea and believe in it. In this area we think more names are better than concentrating on a few. Please don’t load up with the highest yield ideas. Names like Calumet (CLMT)* and Vermilion (VET)* will be growing their dividend very rapidly. We believe the share price will increase with the growth in the dividend. Still a number of healthy but still yielding 10 to 13% annual dividends out there.

As a blogger/newsletter writer, I have no idea what you are doing financially. Many of you are casual readers and others, I know, pay close attention to what I write. To both groups, I want to say that even though I am writing and sending, I care about what is going on in your financial life. I hope that my thoughts and comments are helping you rather than hurting you. No market correction or crash is the same. At the same time there are time proven ways to survive and come out of a market correction stronger than when you went into the correction. That does not mean buy and hold with your eyes closed. Nor does it mean to sell everything.

Whatever I can do to assist in all of us getting through this period is my goal and mission. Use me as it best fits your situation. This is a problem solving yet opportunistic period. Buy low and sell higher is still the baseline formula. Time is the hardest variable to control but there are things we can do to position our costs to shorten time. Email or text if I can be of help.

Good fortune to us all!

Wealth Building – One Day at a Time
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Contact Tom through the LOTM website or by email
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