Somethings to introduce to you that trouble my view of the market. Don’t get too concerned because I’m 90 percent of the time very optimistic but always worried and wondering where the next big problem is coming from… Here are some concerns.
- Bitcoin ETFs based on Futures not actually buying bitcoin: The futures market could be used to control and manipulate prices of the underlying vehicle. This is rumored in Gold and Silver to keep it from challenging the US$. The fact that the “regulators” prefer futures based ETF over spot bothers me. It allows someone to issue more “paper” to short into the market thus controlling prices. I do not see Futures based ETFs in Crypto as a positive for pricing. Bitcoin Is Going Much Lower, Sell Your Bitcoin Before The Launch Of Bitcoin Futures ETF
- The shortages in “supply chain” are not entirely the whole story. DEMAND is out stripping supply for many reasons, but the cause and effect is this – falling advertising revenue for media companies. Facebook and Google are ad sellers. The reason ad revenue will fall is simple. There is demand for product but shortage of supply. Why pay money for advertising if the demand is high but you cannot meet the demand with product. Advertising is for creating demand. There is no problem with demand. Falling revenue is recessionary. Article on Facebook ad rev slowing and layoffs due to Covid Mandates
- Vaccine Mandates. It is pushing us towards a recession. Medical centers across the country are short of medical care givers. There are many who are choosing to leave the profession rather than get vaccinated. These are medical care givers not the rural hicks the media projects as the anti-vaxxers. The airline strikes. United in August – Spirit Air in September and US Air in October are about refusal to get vaccinated by pilots and crew. It is well discussed in non-main stream media, but not in headline news. Firing these groups grinds the airline industry to a halt. I not saying who’s right or wrong. What I am saying is grinding our medical industry and airline industry to a halt is recessionary. Is our government really finding solutions to our societal problems, or just being heavy handed and dictating? 1,887 WA Workers Fired, Leave Jobs Due to Vaccine Mandate
So, we are heading towards a recession. Business is already slowing globally, and this does domestic” policy does not help. Stagflation really. Slowing economic growth with rising prices. Does that mean the stock market is going down? Not necessarily, but if you believe in cause and effect be careful.
I put together charts on the percent of stocks above or below their 150 day and 50-day moving averages:
Question: Do these charts look like the beginning of a new Bull Run or a Rally in a Down Trend?
Answer: Above the 50-day Moving average but still below the 150-day MA.
So, By the BOOK – A rally in a longer-term Down-trend for the majority of stocks.
It seems we will need a pull back to gather strength before an attempt to cross above the 150-day moving average. That pull-back will tell us a lot.
NYSE: One-year, Percent above or below 150-day MA
NASDAQ: One-year, Percent above or below 150-day MA
SPY: One-year, Percent above or below 150-day MA
Just things I am concerned about.
October 22, 2021
By Tom Linzmeier, Editor, LivingOffTheMarket.com
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I respectfully disagree that mandates are causing the recession. More people being vaccinated is good for our collective health and wellbeing. Ignoring science in the name of public safety is irresponsible. More vaccinated bodies means more citizens returning to normal activities means more demand than supply. Putting unvaccinated employees on the front lines is short sighted. One’s freedom to go unvaccinated treads on another’s safety in any public setting. Mandates for polio and measle vaccines, does anyone remember them? Shortages in healthcare jobs are due to burnout, or more realistically, low wages. Why would someone work in an assisted living facility for $14 an hour when they can make tacos for $17 per hour? Employers crying that no one wants to work anymore is bogus. Employers have to loosen up on the purse strings or find another business model that doesn’t prey on its workers’ quality of life. No one wants to work in a crappy job, when a side hustle brings in more cash with less stress.