Skeena Resources (SKE) $5.82
SilverCrest (SILV)* $5.83
Victoria Gold (VITFF)* $6.05

Skeena Resources (SKE) $5.87

SilverCrest (SILV)* $5.66  Continue reading →

Inflation in Brazil has dropped dramatically. Interest rates are still high. If Brazil gets a third month of falling inflation it could end their interest rate hiking cycle. This would be very bullish for Brazilian bonds and equities.

Inflation rate in Brazil

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Technical Comment for Ten Producing Miners, Published September 9 linked at LivingOffTheMarket.com

• SilverCrest (SILV)*
• First Majestic (AG)
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM)
• Pan American Silver (PAAS)*
• Kinross Gold (KGC)
• Barrick (GOLD)
• B2 Gold (BTG)
• Newmont (NEM)
• Agnico Eagle (AEM)
• Lundin Mining (LUNMF)*
• Victoria Gold (VITFF)
• Karora Resources (KRRGF)* added to the list as our favorite Junior miner for comp purposes.

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Miners typically are in Three stages of development.

• Exploration
• Development
• Production

All three stages above, are subject to the volatility of investor’s fear, greed or apathy. Developmental stage is typically an apathetic price stage. The thrill of Exploration Discovery has gone, and the results from production have not started. The development stage time period can be as short as two to three years to five or six years. In jurisdictions which are unfavorable to mining, it can take much longer. Example: PolyMet (PLM) $3.27, within the state of Minnesota, is going on twenty-years trapped in the developmental stage. Permitting was completed years ago, the State and Federal by 2018. PLM has been declared of national strategic importance (Biden Admin) and still the company is tied up with lawsuits in the courts. Continue reading →

I: The USA has more debt that we can repay.

II: History says there are three paths out of this – civil unrest, war and/or inflation. It is probable that it will encompass a combination of the three. We are already seeing it and before the tax hikes and lowering of government benefits.

III: The US Dollar is losing its position as the Global Reserve currency. The USA will not, is not, going peacefully into the night on this one. I suspect the Russia/Ukraine battle revolves around this topic in unspoken ways. A potential kinetic war with China cannot be ruled out.

The investment theme will be the most rewarding, is a return to buying things with real value. This comes down to Tangible/Real items and Continue reading →

‘Once people realize the Fed doesn’t have to keep increasing rates and will soon take rates down…that will be a buy signal for markets.’ (story link)
— Bill Ackman

One of the clearest signals that the Fed has reached it rate cycle peak – no, let me say it differently. When the two-year Treasury rate falls below the Federal Reserve Funds Rate, the “market” is telling you the rate hikes are over or no longer a threat. Equities will rally when treasuries fall, not when the Fed reduces rates.

The two-year Treasury note rate is a forward looking signal on what the Market thinks. The Fed Funds rate itself is a lagging indicator that is data driven. Therefore, the data driven signal to act is published numbers and not a forward Continue reading →

Within the next 60 to 90-days, we expect:

• Ten-year Treasury Rates to pause and then fall.
• The US Dollar to fall.
• Risk Assets to rally – Growth stocks with cash flow, Bitcoin & Ethereum to rally.
• Money flows to shift towards Emerging Markets (EM) and away from U.S. Equities.
• Physical metals and commodities to rise in price.

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Risk management tactics are both traditional and in presenting Nationally over about 15 years, I heard of a number of non-traditional risk management tactics.

Traditional for traders often involves stop loss orders.
Traditional risk management for long term, passive investors is often DCA – Dollar-Cost-Averaging.

There are a couple of market thoughts that fit into this risk management tool I will discuss today.

• One, is the adage, keep your losses limited and let your winners keep winning. In previous comments I have mentioned to try to keep your losses to a $1.00 of loss for each $3.00 targeted gain. In doing this you can lose two of three trades and still be profitable overall with the one winner out of three trades.
• Another “fact” I discovered years ago, not really an adage, but a truism, is more low price stocks appear in the annual “best performers list each year than expensive stocks appear on the best performer list, no matter the category. By Category I mean S&P 500, NASDAQ or NYSE. Of the top ten in each of the previous categories mentioned, 7 or 8 of the best performers started from under $10. That is where my interest in sub-$10 ideas started. If you want winners and at the end of each year, the majority of the market biggest winners, started from under $10. I am also shrinking the pool of ideas I look at in doing this exercise. That makes my job easier. There are more selection factors in profiling for potential 2X to 10X winners but that is not the subject today.

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